MYANMAR MILITARY COUP - 2021 (OSINT ANALYSIS)
Updated: Apr 17, 2021
MYANMAR:
Myanmar, also known as Burma, is in South East Asia. It neighbors Thailand, Laos, Bangladesh, China and India.
It has a population of about 54 million, most of whom are Burmese speakers, although other languages are also spoken. The biggest city is Yangon (Rangoon), but the capital is Nay Pyi Taw.
The main religion is Buddhism. There are many ethnic groups in the country, including Rohingya Muslims.
The country gained independence from Britain in 1948. It was ruled by the armed forces from 1962 until 2011, when a new government began ushering in a return to civilian rule.
STRATOCARCY (Government headed by Military Chiefs):
Tatmadaw is the official name of the armed forces of Myanmar. The military is now back in charge and has declared a year-long state of emergency.
It seized control on 1 February following a general election which Ms Suu Kyi's NLD party won by a landslide.
The armed forces had backed the opposition, who were demanding a rerun of the vote, claiming widespread fraud.
The election commission said there was no evidence to support these claims.
The coup took place as a new session of parliament was set to open.
Ms Suu Kyi has been held at an unknown location since the coup. She is facing various charges, including possessing illegal walkie-talkies, violating Covid-19 restrictions during last year's election campaign and publishing information that may "cause fear or alarm".
NLD MPs who managed to escape arrest formed a new group in hiding. Their leader has urged protesters to defend themselves against the crackdown.
The Military Announced that it gonna seize the power via Myawaddy TV channel - Military Tv Channel on Feb 1.
Min Aung Hlaing --- Aung San Suu Kyi
Military commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing has taken power.
He has long wielded significant political influence, successfully maintaining the power of the Tatmadaw - Myanmar's military - even as the country moved towards democracy.
He has received international condemnation and sanctions for his alleged role in the military's attacks on ethnic minorities.
In his first public comments after the coup, Gen Hlaing sought to justify the takeover. He said the military was on the side of the people and would form a "true and disciplined democracy".
The military says it will hold a "free and fair" election once the state of emergency is over.
Aung San Suu Kyi became world-famous in the 1990s for campaigning to restore democracy.
She spent nearly 15 years in detention between 1989 and 2010, after organizing rallies calling for democratic reform and free elections.
She was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 1991 while under house arrest.
In 2015, she led the NLD to victory in Myanmar's first openly contested election in 25 years.
Military’s Reason to Seize Power :
The Tatmadaw proclaimed a year-long state of emergency and declared power had been vested in Commander-in-Chief of Defence Services Min Aung Hlaing. It declared the results of the November 2020 general election invalid and stated its intent to hold a new election at the end of the state of emergency even though most of Myanmar's people are satisfied with the results of the election.The coup d'état occurred the day before the Parliament of Myanmar was due to swear in the members elected at the 2020 election, thereby preventing this coup from occurring. President Win Myint and State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi were detained, along with ministers, their deputies and members of Parliament.
The Military has stated that there are over 10 Million findings that could lead to voter fraud.Therefore , they have released their statement to condemn the 2020 General Election .
The Election Results :
General elections were held in Myanmar on 8 November 2020. Voting occurred in all constituencies, excluding seats appointed by or reserved for the military, to elect members to both the upper house- Amyotha Hluttaw (the House of Nationalities) and the lower house- Pyithu Hluttaw (the House of Representatives) of the Assembly of the Union, as well as State and Regional Hluttaws (legislatures). Ethnic Affairs Ministers were also elected by their designated electorates on the same day, although only select ethnic minorities in particular states and regions were entitled to vote for them. A total of 1,171 national, state, and regional seats were contested in the election, with polling having taken place in all townships, including areas considered conflict zones and self-administered regions.
On 1 February 2021, the Tatmadaw (Myanmar Armed Forces) declared the results of the election to be illegitimate and launched a coup d'état that deposed State Counselor Aung San Suu Kyi and President Win Myint.
Popular Hashtags regarding Myanmar Military Coup:
#whatshappeninginmyanmar (most popular)
#feb**coup (daily basis)
#mar**coup (daily basis)
False Claim by the Military :
Evidence and fact-based investigation on Tatmadaw's false claims of 2020 election The Military orchestrated a coup and seized power unlawfully and unjustly on 01 Feb 2021. They claim that there were over 10.4M voter list irregularities (10,482,116) which could have led to votingmalpractices and frauds in the 2020 General Election and the allegation was used to justify the coup. As such, the Military formed the legal basis for their military take over. However, the Military's seizure of power is unlawful and unconstitutional.
In addition, their claims of election fraud is a deliberately fabricated falsehood. The following are the evidence and facts found to prove why such is the case…
These are findings collected and analysed by The Insights - They are a team of youths, interested in Data Science, reporting our findings on social medias.
This Analysis was verified by the member of the parliament Showing that the Alignment of the Military was false , they used it to gain the power and bread the civilian rule.
What could be motive of the militarty :
The military's motives for the coup remain unclear. Ostensibly, the military has posited that alleged voter fraud threatened national sovereignty. A few days before the coup, the civilian-appointed Union Election Commission had categorically rejected the military's claims of voter fraud, citing the lack of evidence to support the military's claims of 8.6 million irregularities in voter lists across Myanmar's 314 townships.
The coup may have been driven by the military's goal to preserve its central role in Burmese politics. The Defence Services Act imposes a mandatory retirement age of 65 for the Armed Forces' Commander-in-Chief. Min Aung Hlaing, the incumbent, would have been forced to retire on his 65th birthday in July 2021. Further, the Constitution empowers solely the President, in consultation with the National Defence and Security Council, with the authority to appoint Min Aung Hlaing's successor, which could have provided an opportunity for the civilian arm of the government to appoint a more reform-minded military officer as Commander-in-Chief.
Hlaing's lack of power would have exposed him to potential prosecution and accountability for alleged war crimes during the Rohingya conflict in various international courts.Min Aung Hlaing had also hinted a potential entry into politics as a civilian, after his retirement.
The activist group Justice for Myanmar has also noted the significant financial and business interests of Min Aung Hlaing and his family, as a potential motivating factor for the coup. Min Aung Hlaing oversees two military conglomerates, the Myanmar Economic Corporation (MEC) and Myanma Economic Holdings Limited (MEHL), while his daughter, son, and daughter-in-law have substantial business holdings in the country.
A few days before the coup, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) had released $350 million of cash to the Central Bank of Myanmar, as part of an emergency aid package, to address the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. The funds came with no conditions, and without any precedent for refunds. In response to potential concerns regarding proper use of the funds by the military regime, an IMF spokesperson stated “It would be in the interests of the government, and certainly the people of Myanmar that those funds are indeed used accordingly.” The IMF did not directly address any concerns regarding the independence of the Central Bank, given the military's appointment of Than Nyein, an ally, as governor.
A lobbyist for the military junta reported that the junta would like to improve relations with the United States and distance Myanmar from China, believing Myanmar had grown too close to China under Aung San Suu Kyi.
People Reaction & Military’s Action:
Civil resistance efforts have emerged within the country, in opposition to the coup, in numerous forms, including acts of civil disobedience, labor strikes, a military boycott campaign, a pot-banging movement, a red ribbon campaign, public protests, and formal recognition of the election results by elected representatives. The three-finger salute has been widely adopted as a protest symbol, while netizens joined the Milk Tea Alliance, an online democratic solidarity movement in Asia. "Kabar Makyay Bu" (ကမ္ဘာမကျေဘူး), a song that was first popularized as the anthem of the 8888 Uprising, has been revitalized by the civil disobedience movement as a protest song.
Since the onset of the coup, residents in urban centers such as Yangon staged cacerolazos, striking pots and pans in unison every evening as a symbolic act to drive away evil, as a method of expressing their opposition to the coup
2nd February
Healthcare workers and civil servants across the country launched a national civil disobedience campaign, in opposition to the coup, with workers from from dozens of state-run hospitals and institutions initiating a labor strike. A Facebook campaign group dubbed the "Civil Disobedience Movement" has attracted 150,000 followers, within 24 hours of its launch on 2 February. As of 3 February, healthcare workers in over 110 government hospitals and healthcare agencies have participated in the movement. The labor strikes have spread to other parts of the civil service, including union-level ministries and universities, as well as to private firms, such as factories and copper mines, students, and youth groups.
Some Yangonites staged a brief 15-minute protest rally at 8 pm, calling for the overthrow of the dictatorship and Aung San Suu Kyi's release.
3 February
healthcare workers launched the red ribbon campaign, the colour red being associated with the NLD.The red ribbon has been adopted by civil servants and workers across Myanmar as a symbol of opposition to the military regime
a domestic boycott movement called the "Stop Buying Junta Business" campaign also emerged, calling for the boycott of products and services linked to the Myanmar military. Among the targeted goods and services in the Burmese military's significant business portfolio include Mytel, a national telecoms carrier, Myanmar, Mandalay, and Dagon Beer, several coffee and tea brands.
4 February
30 citizens protested against the coup, in front of the University of Medicine in Mandalay, an act that led to four arrests.
6 February
20,000 protestors took part in a street protest in Yangon against the coup, calling for Aung San Suu Kyi to be released. Workers from 14 trade unions participated in the protests. Protests spread to Mandalay and to the Pyinmana township of Naypyidaw on the afternoon of 6 February. The Mandalay marches started at 1 pm. Protestors continued on motorbikes at 4:00 pm in reaction to police restrictions. Police were in control by 6 pm.
9 February
the military used violence to crackdown on peaceful protests, injuring six protestors, including a 20-year old woman who was shot in the head. About 100 demonstrators were arrested in Mandalay.[
10 February
most of the arrested demonstrators from Mandalay were released.
Youth groups protested on the roads by wearing cosplay costumes, skirts, wedding dresses, and other unusual clothing for daily life while holding signboards and vinyl banners that break with the country's more traditional protest messages for the purpose of grabbing attention from both domestic and international press media.
12 February
the Union Day in Myanmar, junta's crackdown in Mawlamyine became more intense as shots were fired.
14 February
Gunfire was heard in Myitkyina, Kachin State, when security forces clashed with protesters. Five journalists were arrested afterwards. Troops joined police in forcefully dispersing marchers using rubber bullets and slingshots in the city of Mandalay
And still the protests and their actions against people continues …
Internet Blockout :
The Military Blocked the Network Connectivity on the very first day of the event(FEB 1) by 8 am .
And The Blockout still continues till the issue is solved . The military is not allowing their people to communicate with others from outside and it tries to reduce the massive protests by blocking out the internet .
These are reported by the NetBlocks - The Internet's Observatory: Tracking disruptions and shutdowns.
Death Rate and In-Human Activities:
Myanmar Military has used many ways to suppress the people of their country . They have used smoke gus , rubber bullets , water squash and so on with open fires . This led to death of many people of Myanmar .The first one to die was Mya Thwe Khaing
The rate of Deaths are being increased and the UN and the other organizations are raising their condemns against the military of Myanmar.
What is the UN Doing ?
Protesters, activists and civilians have pleaded for the international community to intervene and protect Burmese people from the military's attacks.
Various governments around the world have condemned the coup, while the US and UK have imposed sanctions on Myanmar's military leaders. The European Union has also said it is set to introduce targeted sanctions that could be expanded to include military-linked enterprises.
Last week, all 15 members of the UN Security Council unanimously backed the strongest sounding statement since the coup, saying it "strongly condemns the violence against peaceful protestors" and called on the military to "exercise utmost restraint."
UN diplomats told CNN that China, Russia, and Vietnam objected to tougher language calling events "a coup" and in one draft forced the removal of language that would have threatened further action, potentially sanctions.
China has not outright condemned the military takeover, but in comments following the Security Council agreement, UN Ambassador Zhang Jun said "it is important the Council members speak in one voice. We hope the message of the Council would be conducive to easing the situation in Myanmar."
Pallbearers carry the coffin of Ye Swe Oo, who was shot and killed on March 13 during a crackdown by security forces on protesters demonstrating against the military coup, in Mandalay on March 14.
Following the burning of Chinese-owned factories in Yangon this week, China has taken a more aggressive tone. The Chinese Embassy in Myanmar said "China urges Myanmar to take further effective measures to stop all acts of violence, punish the perpetrators in accordance with the law and ensure the safety of life and property of Chinese companies and personnel in Myanmar," according to Chinese state broadcaster CGTN.
Many in Myanmar are becoming frustrated with mere words of condemnation and are demanding more meaningful action.
Myanmar's ambassador to the UN, Kyaw Moe Tun, told CNN the UN Security Council's message "does not meet the peoples' expectation." And protesters can be seen holding signs reading "R2P" referring to a UN global political commitment called Responsibility to Protect, which seeks to ensure the international community never again fails to halt mass atrocities such as genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity.
A group of 137 nongovernmental organizations from 31 countries have called on the UN Security Council to urgently impose a global arms embargo on Myanmar.
Andrews, the UN special rapporteur for human rights in Myanmar, has urged member states "to deny recognition of the military junta as the legitimate government." He also called for an end to the flow of revenue and weapons to the junta, saying multilateral sanctions "should be imposed" on senior leaders, military-owned and controlled enterprises and the state energy firm, Myanmar Oil and Gas Enterprise.
Military’s Endgame :
After last week’s coup, a key question is whether the military wishes to rule the country directly for the foreseeable future or transfer power to a nominally civilian government that it can guide and control.
Early signals point to the latter. The military has announced that it intends to hold a new election within a year and hand over power to the winning political party. Indeed, after trying and failing to rule the country efficiently for 50 years, the military seems more interested in protecting its special status and privileges guaranteed by the constitution than dealing with the day-to-day problems of governance once again.
What the military needs and wants is a civilian government that accepts the implicit agreement embedded in the 2008 Constitution – that the military is the paramount power in Myanmar and its authority cannot be challenged. With last week’s coup, the military did not announce its desire to rule directly, but merely showed the limits of its tolerance.
This, however, does not mean the military is not going to make any changes to the existing system. It will likely launch an effort to amend the constitution to remove and adjust clauses that it believes are a threat to its authority.
For example, currently there is a first-past-the-post electoral system in Myanmar. This system allowed the NLD to secure an overwhelming majority in the parliament. Had the electoral system been based on proportional representation, other political parties, including those supported by the military, would have received more seats and reduce NLD’s dominance.
An electoral system based on proportional representation makes it very unlikely for a single party to dominate the parliament and can even create the need for a coalition government. After seeing the consequences of one party dominating the parliament, the Myanmar military will most likely seek to change the rules to prevent ending up in a similarly precarious situation in the future.
Conclusion :
The coup is not yet over, and we do not yet know how the people of Myanmar are going to respond to the military’s power grab. The military has already shut down social media in response to rising public disobedience. If people choose to take to the streets in large numbers and the military tries to suppress the protests with violence, the situation can quickly deteriorate. But there is still hope.
Myanmar’s path towards democracy has never been straight. The country’s history is marked with periods of slow progress, periods of swift regress, unrelenting hope, and many disappointments. Last week’s coup undoubtedly erased most of the progress that was made in the last 10 years. But the fight is far from over. Whatever happens in the coming weeks and months, people of Myanmar will eventually get back on their feet like they did many times before and continue their quest to build a political system that allows them to be in charge of their destiny.